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Renewable energy sources

Status and development prospects of renewables, efficiency of photovoltaic and wind farms, PV project audits, RES auctions, biomass market and potential, and biogas plants.

ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC FARM PROJECTS, INCLUDING TECHNICAL AUDIT OF PV INSTALLATIONS

The report will include a reliable assessment of the technical and environmental documentation as well as an analysis of the efficiency of electricity generation in PV installations.

Current meteorological data and technical specifications of the panels installed in the analyzed projects will be used to prepare the analysis of electricity generation efficiency from photovoltaic farms, allowing for a highly accurate forecast of the photovoltaic farm's production capacity. For revenue forecasting from electricity production, we use current forecasts prepared by ARE specialists.

As part of the technical and economic analysis of the investment, you will receive:

  • a forecast of electricity production from the installation,
  • expected profits from the sale of this energy,
  • analysis of NPV, IRR, ROI, and other economic indicators,
  • analysis of potential revenues from the auction support system.

To prepare such a report, additional data from the client is required:

  • Planned power of the investment,
  • Location of the planned photovoltaic farm (plots),
  • Model and power of photovoltaic panels,
  • Model and power of inverters.

It is also possible to supplement the necessary technical data for the analysis by experts from the Energy Market Agency. As part of the technical analysis of the investment, clients will receive a forecast of electricity production from the installation, taking into account changes in PV panel productivity over the years.

As part of the technical analysis of the investment, you will receive a forecast of electricity production from the installation, taking into account changes in the productivity of PV modules over the years. In addition, we offer audits of already operational photovoltaic farms. The audit activities include:

  • visual inspection – examination of the selection and correctness of component installation, analysis of documentation (design, datasheets, installation instructions, etc.) and comparison with the actual state,
  • electrical measurements – insulation resistance, grounding, and short-circuit loop impedance measurements,
  • drawing the current-voltage (I-V) characteristic – measurement of the electrical parameters of the module strings,
  • electroluminescence (EL) testing – testing for potential module damage.

The offered tests will be conducted by experts with many years of experience in designing, installing, testing, and auditing photovoltaic installations. Our experienced team guarantees the highest quality of the service provided.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 


ANALYSIS OF THE BIOMASS MARKET IN POLAND WITH A BIOMASS PRICE FORECAST UNTIL 2040

DEDICATED REPORT

A new service covering the analysis of the biomass market in Poland. The offered report will examine the technical potential of the main types of biomass used in the country, analyze the legal framework for biomass utilization, and provide a price forecast for biomass and major fossil fuels. 
The proposed scope of the report includes the following topics:

  1. Biomass Market Analysis
    1. Analysis of selected types of biomass for energy production (biomass supply potential):
      1. Forest biomass
      2. Agro biomass
      3. Energy crops
    2. Biomass imports to Poland
    3. Biomass utilization in Europe, with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European countries
    4. Overview of planned biomass investments in Poland
    5. Analysis of biomass transportation costs for energy purposes
    6. Price forecasts for selected types of biomass until 2040 in various scenarios
  2. Regulatory and Legal Aspects of Biomass
    1. Analysis of legal conditions for biomass utilization for energy purposes
    2. The RED III Directive and biomass
    3. Analysis of CO2 emission charges for different types of fuels
  3. Competitiveness of Biomass vs. Other Energy Resources
    1. Prices of different types of biomass used in the energy sector
    2. Comparison of historical spreads in electricity and heat generation from biomass, hard coal, and natural gas
    3. Merit order and biomass
  4. Price Trajectories of Selected Biomass Types (in Scenarios) Until 2040
    1. Breakdown by biomass source
    2. In relation to gas, coal, and electricity prices
    3. Including transportation costs
       

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 


BENCHMARK FOR THE EFFICIENCY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC FARMS IN POLAND

ANNUAL REPORT

Photovoltaic energy is developing in Poland at a very dynamic pace. In the last two years, several photovoltaic power plants with an installed capacity greater than 10MW have been commissioned, allowing for the preparation of a report containing their aggregate technical, economic, and financial parameters.

The Energy Market Agency S.A. has prepared an analysis regarding the operation of photovoltaic farms in Poland, based on available data on the productivity, profitability, and debt levels of these installations. In our opinion, such an analysis should facilitate the making of preliminary investment decisions for new photovoltaic farm projects. The report will present aggregate data for the entire PV sector (with a capacity greater than or equal to 10MW), as well as averaged data converted to the production unit MWh, in order to present benchmarks for the operation of PV farms in Poland. 

To capture any potential changes in the market, technical and economic data will be presented for the years 2024-2025.
The scope of the analysis primarily includes:

  1. Comparison of monthly efficiency of PV farms in Poland.
    Additionally, there is a possibility to compare the efficiency of PV farms owned by a given enterprise against the rest of the photovoltaic subsector.
  2. Compilation of costs and profitability of production activities for photovoltaic technology.
  3. Presentation of benchmark values (max and min) for individual economic parameters of the analyzed group of PV farms.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 


BENCHMARKING THE EFFICIENCY OF WIND FARMS IN POLAND

ANNUAL REPORT

Wind energy is currently the dominant technology for renewable electricity production in Poland. Considering the number of factors influencing the efficiency of a wind farm, the selection of optimal wind turbines or suitable locations presents a significant challenge for investors.

In response to market demand, the Energy Market Agency S.A. has prepared a comprehensive analysis offering regarding the operation of wind farms in Poland. Based on the compiled information, it will be possible to conduct preliminary investment analyses for new wind farm projects and compare the efficiency of existing facilities with wind farms operating under similar conditions.

To capture potential changes, technical and economic data will be presented for the years 2024-2025.

The detailed scope of the analysis includes:

  1. Comparison of monthly efficiency of wind farms in different regions of Poland.

    To ensure comparability of the operational parameters of wind farms, their efficiency will be analyzed considering the specific conditions related to their location. Aggregations will be based on the windiness map of Poland developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, respecting the provisions of the Public Statistics Act.

    Additionally, there is an opportunity to compare the efficiency of wind farms owned by a specific company with other units operating under similar conditions.

  2. Analysis of costs and profitability of electricity generation in wind power plants.

  3. Aggregated data on the financial results of the wind farm sector, also broken down by windiness zones.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 


MONITORING OF BIOMASS CONSUMPTION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR

PACKAGE OF 12 MONTHLY REPORTS 
PACKAGE OF 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS + ANNUAL REPORT

The aim of this report is to present the most current data regarding the biomass market used for energy purposes. Rapidly changing legal regulations affect the price levels as well as the quantity and structure of biomass consumption in the professional energy sector. 

The package "Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector" will include monthly, quarterly, and annual reports. 

The monthly edition will contain the following data:

  • biomass consumption figures (monthly),
  • average calorific values of consumed biomass in the given month (minimum, average, and maximum),
  • data on electricity production from biomass broken down by groups of generating units.

These figures will be compared to the same month of the previous year. 

The quarterly edition will present estimates: 

  • biomass consumption figures (quarterly),
  • average calorific values of biomass consumed in the professional energy sector (minimum, average, and maximum),
  • data on electricity production from biomass broken down by groups of generating units,
  • biomass prices in the professional energy sector (minimum, maximum, and average prices).

These figures will be compared to the same quarter of the previous year. 

The annual edition of the “Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector” will cover the sectors of professional electricity generation, industry, and heating. 

Data concerning professional electricity generation will include, among other things: 

  • the quantity and structure of biomass consumption,
  • prices of specific types of biomass (including forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, other biomass fuels),
  • average calorific values of biomass consumed in the professional energy sector (minimum, average, and maximum),
  • gross electricity production using biomass.

In the case of industrial energy, the information provided will concern: 

  • electricity production from biomass (MWh),
  • the structure of biomass consumed (similarly to the professional energy sector),
  • the quantity of biomass consumption.

Information regarding heating will include: 

  • the quantity of biomass consumption broken down into e.g. forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, organic solid municipal waste, other biomass fuels,
  • prices of specific types of biomass (including forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, organic solid municipal waste, other biomass fuels),
  • the structure of biomass consumption by voivodeships. 

All the mentioned figures will be compared with the values from the previous year. 

Additionally, each report will have the option to present broader information about the ordering company, such as: 

  • share in electricity production from biomass among all producers in the sector,
  • biomass consumption by the ordering company compared to competitors (mass consumption and calorific values of consumed biomass). 

The package “Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector” will contain a complete set of necessary information about the dynamically developing market. Quarterly and annual data on biomass prices will allow for the estimation of the effectiveness of fuel purchasing strategies, while ongoing and historical analysis of biomass consumption figures will allow for forecasting future consumption levels.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 


RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES (RES) IN POLAND – DIAGNOSIS OF THE CURRENT STATE AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS UNTIL 2030

ANNUAL REPORT

The purpose of this report is to present the most up-to-date data regarding the development of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in Poland. Changing legal regulations and market conditions significantly affect the production volume in the RES sector and the profitability of investing in the renewable energy segment. 

The report we propose to you will include:

  • An analysis of the development of the RES market divided by individual technologies of its production.
  • Current data on the capacity in the sector and data on electricity production from renewable energy sources.
  • Information about the renewable energy market in Poland from 2022 to 2025.
  • A list of current and planned investments in the renewable energy sector until 2030.
  • An analysis of the renewable energy market in the European Union.
  • Development prospects for individual electricity generation technologies based on the "Energy Policy of Poland until 2040." 

The report will also address the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on the energy sector.

The current analysis of the RES market presented in the report, taking into account its dynamic development, will be a helpful tool for management in making appropriate management decisions to strengthen their position or plans to enter this promising sector for new entities. 

The report will cover the following issues:

  1. Analysis of data on generation capacities in renewable energy from 2023 to 2025.
  2. Current analysis of the situation in individual RES segments (wind energy, photovoltaics, biomass and biogas installations) in terms of the following quantities and indicators:
    • Changes in capacity from 2023 to 2025.
    • Energy production for individual technologies from 2023 to 2025.
    • Changes in capacity in 2025 – completed and currently ongoing investments.
  3. Information about the renewable energy market in Poland in 2025.
    • Conditions affecting the current situation in the renewable energy market.
    • Functioning of the renewable energy market – overview of the general situation.
    • Non-market redistribution of RES in the country.
    • Competition in the Polish renewable energy market (largest entities, acquisitions, etc.).
    • The role and development of battery storage in the context of RES.
  4. Development prospects for the renewable energy sector in Poland until 2030.
    • Analysis of conducted and planned RES auctions.
    • Forecasted changes in installed capacities until 2030, in individual technologies, based on the state's energy policy.
    • Cable pooling in the case of RES.
    • Investments currently underway and planned until 2030 (type of investment and incurred and planned expenditures) in individual technologies.
    • The PPA market in Poland.
  5. Renewable energy in the EU.
    • Capacity structure and its changes from 2023 to 2025 divided by production technologies.
    • Prospects and directions for the development of renewable energy, in line with the European Union's policy until 2030.
    • Ongoing and planned investments in the coming years, divided by individual technologies.
  6. Conclusions

Contact:

Mariusz Sowa
tel. 22-444-20-65
email: mariusz.sowa@are.waw.pl 


ASSESSMENT OF BIOMASS POTENTIAL FOR ENERGY PURPOSES IN THE COUNTRY OR SELECTED VOIVODESHIPS

In the changing market and legal realities, a reliable assessment of biomass procurement opportunities becomes a key task for making responsible decisions regarding investments in renewable energy sources based on biomass. 

The purpose of this study is to present the supply of biomass that can be utilized for energy purposes, divided by types of biomass, as well as a forecast of this supply until 2026. 

In particular, the analysis will cover the following types of biomass:

  • Agro biomass: straw, hay, biomass from food waste;
  • Biomass from energy crops;
  • Forest biomass: wood from forests, waste biomass from wood processing plants;
  • Biomass from other sources: sewage sludge, animal manure.

The study will present historical data on biomass supply, the physicochemical properties of the most important biomass fuels, and biomass prices used in energy production. The paper will also present a probable price trajectory for each type of biomass along with forecasts of their supply until 2026. 

Additionally, the study will include an overview of the main biomass producers and consumers in Poland, as well as a review of planned investments and auctions for renewable energy sources for biomass sources. 

In the case of ordering a study for the entire country, we also offer an analysis of historical data on biomass import and export, along with a forecast until 2026.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 


PRICE STACK FOR POLISH WIND FARMS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AUCTION PURPOSES

PACKAGE 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

The study will include an analysis of planned auctions for the upcoming year, based on current knowledge in this area. It will cover proposed volumes and prices in individual baskets, as well as a summary of generation technologies eligible for support in the respective auctions.

Wind farm operators are preparing their own strategies to determine the conditions for participating in planned electricity sales auctions. In particular, they are conducting market research to create an optimal pricing offer.

In response to these needs, we encourage you to take advantage of our analysis, which will show how Polish wind farms are currently performing in the wholesale electricity market. The price ranking of wind farms, supplemented by parameters characterizing the efficiency of entities in the wind energy sector, will allow you to position your installations among similar entities in Poland.

This analysis will be quarterly and will present selected indicators for wind farms with an installed capacity of at least 10 MW, without disclosing data that could identify specific entities (except for possible units owned by the Client). The report will present the following metrics:

  • Electricity sales prices, in PLN/MWh,
  • Unit revenues from the sale of property rights, in PLN/MWh,
  • Unit technical costs of electricity generation, in PLN/MWh,
  • Unit margin from the sale of electricity and property rights in PLN/MWh,
  • Unit costs of electricity sold from own production, in PLN/MWh,
  • Productivity of electricity generation, referenced to 1 MW of installed capacity.

The results will be presented in the form of a ranking for individual wind installations.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 


FEASIBILITY STUDY OF A BIOGAS PLANT

The development of renewable energy sources is one of the main directions of energy policy in Poland and the European Union. One of the most economically viable technologies for obtaining electricity and heat using renewable resources is biogas plants. The substrate for biogas production can be landfill gas, gas from wastewater treatment plants, or gas obtained from agricultural waste or products. Depending on the substrate used, biogas plants are subject to different regulations. 

We offer you a complete greenfield analysis, which is a comprehensive feasibility study of the installation. The study can be conducted in the absence of preferred assumptions regarding the designed investment or for a technology of biogas plant construction chosen by the Client, along with the optimal method of ensuring supplies of organic substrates.

For greenfield projects, we propose to develop a business plan and financial model based on external data or provided by the Client. The business plan will analyze key aspects of the operation of biogas plants under Polish conditions and elements of its business environment, including, among others:

  • analysis of the potential for substrate acquisition in amounts sufficient to meet the installation's needs;
  • characteristics of biogas plants in Poland (number of installations, ownership structure, utilized substrates, investment expenditures, electricity and heat production),
  • analysis of the local heat market,
  • regulatory environment for biogas plants in Poland (level of support for installations, connection procedures to the grid, obtaining a license for electricity generation from renewable sources, issuing certificates of origin for electricity from RES, trading in certificates of origin, heat pricing),
  • preliminary environmental impact assessment,
  • forecasted price trajectories for electricity.

The financial model of the biogas plant will be based on the Client's own assumptions or assumptions provided by the Client. The financial model will present the values of investment profitability indicators (NPV, IRR) depending on changing external parameters (e.g., connection costs, annual productivity of the installation, electricity prices, substrate costs, or the value of the correction factor).

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

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