Wholesale electricity price forecast
Projections of wholesale electricity prices are one of the most prestigious areas of activity for the Energy Market Agency S.A. and at the same time the most sought-after type of analysis in the market. ARE possesses extensive knowledge and experience in this area and has developed analytical and forecasting tools. Some of these tools were developed by recognized foreign research institutions, while others are the original work of a team of experts who are well acquainted with the specifics of the Polish electricity market. These models allow for the consideration of a number of factors shaping prices in the wholesale market, such as: the level of demand for electricity, operating costs of generation units, fuel costs, environmental costs, the optimal shape of the energy mix, development of RES (including distributed generation), level of inter-system exchange, schedule of permanent outages, and plans for new unit construction, as well as the mode and nature of operation of individual generation sources, network constraints, and many others. Currently, our models distinguish all thermal blocks along with their technical and economic characteristics. The models used are based on hourly time resolution, allowing for projections in the short, medium, and long term. The application of such a solution also enables a detailed analysis of the operation of non-dispatchable energy sources, as well as new technological solutions such as: battery energy storage, electrolyzers, and DSR services. Projections of electricity prices are made in terms of prices in bands (base, peak, and off-peak) as well as in hourly arrangements. The forecasting horizon is adjusted to meet the needs of our Clients (we perform forecasts in the short, medium, and long term).
The offered forecasts are based on the most current macroeconomic, demographic, technical, and market data (in relation to GDP projections, the prices of specific instruments on domestic and foreign markets, primary fuel prices, CO2 emission allowance prices, operating costs of generation units, etc.). They take into account the impact of the operation of individual support systems, including: the capacity market, support for electricity generation from RES and in cogeneration, and improvements in energy efficiency.
The knowledge provided gives our Clients a number of competitive advantages, as well as a broad basis for making appropriate business decisions, particularly important at the threshold of a great energy transformation.