Electricity demand forecast

The Energy Market Agency S.A. has been specializing in the development of forecasts for fuel and energy demand in the short, medium, and long term for many years. To achieve this, it employs a methodology widely used around the world, in which economic growth is regarded as the main driving force behind the increase in energy demand, described using macroeconomic variables, demographic changes, behavioral and technological factors, and the pace of improvement in energy efficiency. The forecasts also take into account the country's energy policy and global trends (e.g., the development of distributed energy, decarbonization of the economy, the development of electromobility, new fuels, and technological solutions). The methodology and models used in the forecasting process have been developed by internationally recognized research institutions, and their applicability for this purpose has been confirmed by numerous analytical studies commissioned by government institutions, energy companies, and international projects (e.g., in the preparation of the National Energy and Climate Plan for 2021-2030).

These forecasts are produced for all types of fuels and energy carriers, as well as for sectors of the national economy. Currently, the models enable the generation of forecasts for fuel and energy consumption broken down by usage directions, such as electrical appliances, lighting, domestic hot water preparation, cooking, space heating, and air conditioning in households. Such analyses allow for the assessment of future changes in fuel and energy utilization across all sectors: electricity, heating, solid, liquid, and gas fuels, etc.