Prosumers and energy supply in the distribution grid
Distributed energy, or generating energy close to the point of consumption, implies the need to change the existing model of the energy system. An energy consumer who actively participates in the process of generating electricity consumes electricity for their own needs and feeds any surplus into the grid. This process significantly impacts the functioning of the electricity system, particularly affecting the amount of electricity drawn from the grid. The growing number of distributed energy sources will change the way the grid is managed and operated. It will primarily compel Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to undertake a series of investment actions aimed at adapting the infrastructure to ensure the ability to supply electricity to customers under specified conditions, at specific locations, and times. The largest increase in capacity among distributed sources is expected to occur in PV sources. Their operation is relatively well correlated with the increasing summer peak load in Poland, which results from the growing use of air conditioning. However, after surpassing certain levels of PV capacity in the system, problems may arise with balancing in the afternoon due to rising demand in the National Power System (KSE) and decreasing PV generation. Additionally, in cases of high PV generation and low demand, local issues may arise in the distribution network, such as voltage levels exceeding permissible values in low and medium voltage networks. Therefore, appropriate planning of the system's operation, including generation from controllable and flexible sources, is crucial.
The Energy Market Agency S.A. offers to produce short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of electricity production in prosumer installations, as well as forecasts of energy consumption by prosumers for their own needs. These projections will be carried out using quantitative methods that allow for the description of the complex characteristics of the phenomenon being studied, as well as precise consideration of many factors affecting the modeled and forecasted quantities. Projections will be conducted in close cooperation with the Client. Information about electricity consumption in an agreed form and structure of measurement data regarding generation and consumption of energy in specific consumer groups will serve as input for the model used in the projection.
The offered analysis will take the form of a report containing the following elements:
- Methodology and description of the models used in the forecast,
- Set of assumptions,
- Forecast of electricity demand in the area of the distribution company's operations, at a time resolution agreed upon with the Client, taking into account the amount of energy consumed for their own needs by prosumers,
- Forecast of electricity production in prosumer installations by 2030: (broken down by type of RES micro-installations, installed capacity [MW], amount of electricity produced fed into the distribution grid [MWh]).
The aforementioned projections will be prepared for a scenario based on the most current assumptions regarding macroeconomic forecasts (GDP considering the impact of COVID-19, inflation, exchange rates EUR/PLN, USD/PLN), demographic forecasts, projections of average outdoor temperatures, and the number of heating and cooling degree days, as well as the anticipated pace of development of prosumer energy.