RES certificate price forecast

The Energy Market Agency S.A. offers projections of prices for certificates of origin for electricity produced from renewable energy sources (PMOZE_A), known as green certificates, traded on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE). These projections will be preceded by a detailed market analysis, with particular emphasis on the legal status and the balance of certificates in the system. Based on the balance of renewable energy source certificates in the system, a projection of the surplus level of certificates will be prepared, taking into account:

• the projected level of electricity demand and sales to end users,
• the required share of renewable energy sources in individual forecast years,
• the level of obligation reduction for industrial consumers,
• the level of production from individual renewable energy sources, assuming that large hydropower plants were excluded from the system as of July 1, 2016, and that support for generation units using biomass co-fired with coal has been limited (0.5 certificate for the production of 1 MWh),
• the gradual exit from the system of units due to migration to the auction system,
• the gradual exit from the system of units due to exceeding the 15-year support period.

Projections of "green certificate" prices, according to the methodology applied in ARE, also take into account the expected level of electricity prices in the competitive market, as the sale of electricity is one of the sources of revenue for owners of renewable energy installations operating within this system, as well as changes in electricity demand. These forecasts are based on the most current macroeconomic, legal, and market data.