Agencja Rynku Energii S.A.

PACKAGE OF 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

The analysis is aimed at both companies actively participating in the retail market and those that are just about to start operations in this area. The goal of the report is to continuously monitor (quarterly) the retail electricity market in light of the changing energy market situation. The study will provide a detailed analysis of the changing structure of the retail electricity market in terms of sellers, mainly trading companies, distinguishing between "incumbent" and alternative groups, as well as in terms of sales forms (comprehensive contracts and sales contracts). The values presented cumulatively will be related to analogous periods of the previous year, and for selected values (prices), the minimum and maximum values will be provided. At the same time, to give a fuller picture of the situation, changes in electricity sales prices for end consumers will also be presented for each quarter of the last two years. 
The report will present changes in wholesale prices, including prices on the TGE futures market, as they have a significant impact on the formation of prices in the retail market.

There will also be references to events from the last two years due to their significant impact on the electricity market, sales volume and structure, and energy prices, which rose to such an extent in 2022 that they were regulated in 2023. The increase in energy prices was influenced by a strong rise in fossil fuel prices and persistently high CO2 emission allowance prices. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions are factors affecting the global economy and the situation  in the country and Europe. The situation is reflected in the rise in retail energy prices, which have been limited by the support measures implemented for consumers. 

In the context of the ongoing phenomena, the 2024 edition will continue to be particularly interesting and useful for retail market participants in both price and trading company performance areas. The analysis will particularly cover information regarding:

1. Changes in the volume of electricity sales and the number of end consumers in individual consumer groups (by network voltage level, type of contract, seller category - PO and POSD).
2. The development of the TPA principle.
3. Electricity prices for end consumers in individual consumer groups (by network voltage level, type of contract, seller category - PO and POSD), including the excise tax and after its elimination.
4. The structure and prices of electricity purchases by trading companies.
5. Profitability and margins in energy activities.

The activities of companies already participating in the retail market will be presented against the backdrop of competition, i.e., the average for selected competitors (the so-called "peer group") and the average for a given segment of trading companies (incumbent POSD and other PO).

The analyzed values will be presented in tabular or graphical form. The in-depth analysis of the retail market presented in the report will be an effective tool for management, contributing to strengthening the company's position in the retail energy market.

Contact:

Piotr Mielziuk
tel. 22-444-20-63
mail: piotr.mielziuk@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE OF 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

The study is aimed at electricity trading companies actively operating in the wholesale market. It will serve as a source of external market analyses, providing one of the scenarios for determining short-term electricity hedging strategies. 

The report will analyze the electricity and property rights trading markets operating on the Commodity Exchange S.A. in Warsaw and the Stock Exchange S.A., transactions conducted on the Balancing Market, and basic data on electricity trading in trading companies. 

In particular, the study will cover the following issues:

• Day-Ahead and Intra-Day Markets (SPOT):
  • Day-Ahead Market on the Commodity Exchange S.A.
  • Hourly Daily Market on the Stock Exchange S.A.
    (Prices and volume of electricity in transactions conducted within continuous listings and uniform price for day-to-day comparisons)
• Futures Markets:
  • Commodity Futures Market on the Commodity Exchange S.A.
  • Electricity Futures Market on the Stock Exchange S.A.
  • OTC transactions
    (Prices and volume of electricity in weekly, quarterly, and annual contracts with delivery in the upcoming year and future years. Analysis of factors influencing changes in electricity prices such as: available transmission capacities on synchronous connections in daily and monthly tenders, short-term macroeconomic forecasts, electricity prices in futures contracts on neighboring electricity exchanges, availability of energy blocks in centrally dispatched generation units, current and future prices of CO2 emission allowances, and sales prices of energy coal in Polish mines and international markets.)
• Electricity Balancing Market:
  (Prices and volume of electricity on the balancing market)
  • Prices and sales directions of electricity by producers and trading companies.
• Property Rights Markets:
  • Property Rights Market on the Commodity Exchange S.A.
  • Property Rights Market on the Stock Exchange S.A.
    (Prices and volume in transactions conducted during continuous listings and off-exchange transactions, supply and demand for certificates of origin determined based on quarterly electricity deliveries to end consumers and renewable energy production in Poland.)

Based on the quotes from the day-ahead market (hourly products) in a given quarter, an “averaged day” will be created, for which the electricity delivery price for each hour will be the average for that quarter; additionally, a “minimum and maximum day” will be defined consisting of the minimum and maximum electricity prices for deliveries for those hours in that quarter. 

For futures markets, synthetic results of trading on the futures markets of the Commodity Exchange S.A. and the Stock Exchange S.A. will be created. Additionally, based on external factors such as macroeconomic indicators, quarterly fuel prices, and energy block downtimes, it will be possible to determine trends in electricity prices for the next several months.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE OF 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

For many years, the production of electricity through cogeneration has been promoted, as it is an eco-friendly technology.

In the proposed quarterly analysis, we will show you to what extent the auction support mechanism or its absence affects the results, and thus the profitability of cogeneration units in professional energy. Did all units require support, what are the differences in cost levels between producers using different fuels (hard coal, gas fuel, biomass), with particular attention to CO2 costs and fuel costs.

Combined heat and power plants will be divided into groups based on the type of fuel consumed (hard coal, gas fuel, biomass), and then into subgroups based on the level of installed capacity:

• in the case of coal-fired power plants, there will be four groups (electric power above 200 MW; from 100 MW to 200 MW; from 50 MW to 100 MW; and from 1 MW to 50 MW),
• gas-fired units will be divided into two groups (with installed capacity above 50 MW and with installed capacity from 1 MW to 10 MW).
• biomass power plants - one group with installed capacity from 1 MW to 50 MW.

The analysis will include, among other things:

• energy production, including high-efficiency cogeneration,
• income statements (for electricity and energy activities),
• unit revenues, including revenues from guaranteed/cogeneration premiums,
• unit production costs of electricity,
• unit technical production costs (fixed and variable costs, with special attention to the primary item - fuel costs),
• prices of sold electricity,
• margin on sold electricity,
• profitability on electricity,
• profitability on energy activities,
• CO2 costs (PLN/MWh of produced electricity and heat),
• productivity of electricity production (per 1 MW of installed capacity).

Selected figures (profitability, unit costs, prices) will be presented in the form of a ranking for individual production units (with no possibility of identifying the entity – except for units owned by the Client).

The analysis will cover individual quarters of 2023, in relation to the corresponding quarters of the previous year.

The report will include information on conducted auctions and their results.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The subject of the analysis is the preparation of a dataset presenting the income statement for energy activities for specific groups of trading enterprises (PO) engaged in selling energy to final consumers. The information will concern reporting periods (quarterly) for the year 2023. 

Data for subsequent quarters will be presented in a cumulative format. 

Data regarding the income statement for individual groups and periods will be presented in tables, according to the template provided below:

• Revenues from sales
• Total costs of obtaining revenues
  including:
  • costs of purchased energy,
  • other trading fees,
  • costs of amortized property rights and substitute fees,
  • costs of own activities,
  • excise duty,
• Result on sales.
• Other revenues.
• Other costs.
• Financial revenues.
• Financial costs.
• Result.

The income statement will be presented for three subgroups of trading enterprises (PO):

1. For trading enterprises where the annual volume of energy sold to final consumers exceeded 500 GWh.
2. For trading enterprises where the annual volume of energy sold to final consumers was less than or equal to 500 GWh and greater than 100 GWh.
3. For trading enterprises where the annual volume of energy sold to final consumers was less than or equal to 100 GWh.

At the same time, due to the necessity to maintain statistical confidentiality (data for a group with at least three entities, none of which has a dominant position - 75% share), the number of presented subgroups in selected periods may be limited.

The study will include lists of trading companies (PO) selling electricity to final consumers and included in each subgroup for every reporting period.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

The production costs in relation to the level of revenues determine the results and future of companies. In recent years, due to the difficult situation, companies have decided to carry out write-downs to update the value of fixed assets. One of the key factors determining financial results are the levels of CO2 emission allowance prices and coal prices. 

What is the current situation, what are the differences in cost levels among producers, how are the prices of sold energy shaped, and what affects the level of results achieved? Finally, what impact do CO2 emission allowance prices and coal prices have on cost levels?

We will attempt to answer these questions in our study. We propose to conduct a quarterly analysis of the costs of electricity production in power plants producing energy based on coal. The power plants will be divided into two groups based on the level of installed capacity (up to 1000 MW and above 1000 MW).

Among other things, the following will be analyzed:

• income statements (for electricity and energy activities),
• unit costs of electricity production, which will include: costs of own activities, costs of amortized property rights, sales costs, management costs, other operating costs, and financial costs,
• unit technical costs of production (fixed and variable costs, with particular emphasis on the main item – fuel costs),
• costs of consumed coal (PLN/ton and PLN/GJ) and the amount of coal consumed,
• prices of sold electricity,
• margin on sold energy,
• profitability on electricity,
• profitability on energy activities,
• CO2 costs (PLN/MWh of produced electricity and heat),
• productivity in electricity production (per 1 MW of installed capacity).

Selected metrics (profitability, unit costs, prices) will be presented in the form of a ranking for individual generating units (without the possibility of identifying the entity – exceptions may be units owned by the ordering party).

The analysis will cover individual quarters of 2023 in relation to the corresponding quarters of the previous year. 

Contact:

Mariusz Sowa
tel. 22-444-20-65
mail: mariusz.sowa@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

Based on the experience and opinions of our previous recipients, this report has proven to be an extremely useful tool for management teams in conducting analysis and assessment of economic and financial activities. It contains a wide spectrum of datasets and indicators (approximately 100), concerning both the overall operations of the enterprise and energy activities, characterizing the functioning and economic efficiency of the enterprise. In the upcoming 2024 year, the report will include an updated set of quarterly information presented in tabular and graphical form. To enable comparison and determine the position of your company against other market participants, your company's results will be presented alongside the minimum, maximum, average, and quartile values within the group of enterprises. To deepen the comparative analysis for producers within energy groups, average indicator values characterizing the production activities of their own group will be presented.

The report will include, among other things, information on:

• profitability,
• asset utilization and financing,
• liquidity, debt, and debt repayment capacity,
• labor costs,
• production of electricity and heat,
• structure of electricity and heat sales,
• sales prices of electricity and heat, unit production costs,
• volumes and sales prices of electricity and distribution services to customers with comprehensive contracts divided by voltage,
• volumes and sales prices of electricity/distribution services to final customers with sales contracts divided by voltage,
• volumes and prices of purchased electricity/transmission and distribution services.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE OF 12 MONTHLY REPORTS 
PACKAGE OF 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS + ANNUAL REPORT

The aim of this report is to present the most current data regarding the biomass market used for energy purposes. Rapidly changing legal regulations affect the price levels as well as the quantity and structure of biomass consumption in the professional energy sector. 

The package "Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector" will include monthly, quarterly, and annual reports. 

The monthly edition will contain the following data:

• biomass consumption figures (monthly),
• average calorific values of consumed biomass in the given month (minimum, average, and maximum),
• data on electricity production from biomass broken down by groups of generating units.

These figures will be compared to the same month of the previous year. 

The quarterly edition will present estimates: 

• biomass consumption figures (quarterly),
• average calorific values of biomass consumed in the professional energy sector (minimum, average, and maximum),
• data on electricity production from biomass broken down by groups of generating units,
• biomass prices in the professional energy sector (minimum, maximum, and average prices).

These figures will be compared to the same quarter of the previous year. 

The annual edition of the “Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector” will cover the sectors of professional electricity generation, industry, and heating. 

Data concerning professional electricity generation will include, among other things: 

• the quantity and structure of biomass consumption,
• prices of specific types of biomass (including forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, other biomass fuels),
• average calorific values of biomass consumed in the professional energy sector (minimum, average, and maximum),
• gross electricity production using biomass.

In the case of industrial energy, the information provided will concern: 

• electricity production from biomass (MWh),
• the structure of biomass consumed (similarly to the professional energy sector),
• the quantity of biomass consumption.

Information regarding heating will include: 

• the quantity of biomass consumption broken down into e.g. forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, organic solid municipal waste, other biomass fuels,
• prices of specific types of biomass (including forest biomass, energy crops, agricultural waste, organic solid municipal waste, other biomass fuels),
• the structure of biomass consumption by voivodeships. 

All the mentioned figures will be compared with the values from the previous year. 

Additionally, each report will have the option to present broader information about the ordering company, such as: 

• share in electricity production from biomass among all producers in the sector,
• biomass consumption by the ordering company compared to competitors (mass consumption and calorific values of consumed biomass). 

The package “Monitoring of Biomass Consumption in the Energy Sector” will contain a complete set of necessary information about the dynamically developing market. Quarterly and annual data on biomass prices will allow for the estimation of the effectiveness of fuel purchasing strategies, while ongoing and historical analysis of biomass consumption figures will allow for forecasting future consumption levels.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

The study will present a monthly forecast of the PSCMI 1 index value for the years 2024 - 2026.

The scope of the study will include:

• a description of the factors influencing coal prices, including an overview of the situation in the Polish and global markets,
• a description of the methodology used for the forecast,
• a forecast of the PSCMI 1 index value,
• an analysis of the forecast results.

The forecast will be based on current market data that affect coal prices. This data will be analyzed in advance for its impact on fuel prices. The model used for the prediction was selected based on expert analyses of the issue. The methodology will be based on multiple regression, which can be briefly described as estimating the value of the dependent variable using the values of the independent variables that influence it.

The variables to be analyzed will be selected from market and economic data, focusing on those that have the most significant impact on the level of the PSCMI 1 index. This analysis will be conducted each time to ensure the best possible fit of the independent variables. The results of the calculations will be subject to expert evaluation.
We also offer the possibility of extending the prediction period based on individual arrangements with the Client.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

The study will include an analysis of planned auctions for the upcoming year, based on current knowledge in this area. It will cover proposed volumes and prices in individual baskets, as well as a summary of generation technologies eligible for support in the respective auctions.

Wind farm operators are preparing their own strategies to determine the conditions for participating in planned electricity sales auctions. In particular, they are conducting market research to create an optimal pricing offer.

In response to these needs, we encourage you to take advantage of our analysis, which will show how Polish wind farms are currently performing in the wholesale electricity market. The price ranking of wind farms, supplemented by parameters characterizing the efficiency of entities in the wind energy sector, will allow you to position your installations among similar entities in Poland.

This analysis will be quarterly and will present selected indicators for wind farms with an installed capacity of at least 10 MW, without disclosing data that could identify specific entities (except for possible units owned by the Client). The report will present the following metrics:

• Electricity sales prices, in PLN/MWh,
• Unit revenues from the sale of property rights, in PLN/MWh,
• Unit technical costs of electricity generation, in PLN/MWh,
• Unit margin from the sale of electricity and property rights in PLN/MWh,
• Unit costs of electricity sold from own production, in PLN/MWh,
• Productivity of electricity generation, referenced to 1 MW of installed capacity.

The results will be presented in the form of a ranking for individual wind installations.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

PACKAGE 4 QUARTERLY REPORTS

This report has been published quarterly by ARE S.A. since 1998. It contains a wide range of information about the current situation in the electricity sector and its sub-sectors. The report provides an analytical overview and assessment of current events and ongoing changes, based on reliable data presented in tabular or graphical form. The information is presented cumulatively compared to the same period of the previous year.

The report includes, among other things, information on:

• electricity consumption,
• electricity production and changing structure (with particular attention to renewable energy sources), imports and exports,
• the structure and size of the wholesale market,
• changes in the retail electricity market, the development of the TPA principle,
• electricity prices in the wholesale market, at producers, and in trading companies, broken down by sales direction,
• retail electricity prices for different end-user groups (including and excluding excise tax),
• distribution fees for end-users,
• gross electricity prices (including distribution) in purchasing power parity (PPP) in European Union countries,
• production costs, including unit costs broken down by specific production technologies (including fuel consumption costs),
• electricity delivery costs,
• unit costs of electricity sold to end-users, broken down by "incumbent" trading companies and alternative trading companies,
• profit and loss accounts in individual sub-sectors and groups of producers (hard coal power plants, lignite power plants, biomass thermal power plants, gas-fired CHP plants, CHP plants (without biomass and gas-fired), hydropower plants, wind farms,
• results from trading CO2 emission allowances in production companies,
• financial results of the electricity sector,
• financial results of energy companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange,
• balances of electricity capacity and energy.

In response to expectations, the report will also present the share of distribution fees arising from the existence of the RES fee, cogeneration fee, final fee, and capacity fee.

Contact:

Piotr Mielziuk
tel. 22-444-20-63
mail: piotr.mielziuk@are.waw.pl