Agencja Rynku Energii S.A.

ANNUAL REPORT

The report consists of two parts. The first part will conduct a statistical analysis of the indicators recognized as measures of the quality of medium and low voltage distribution networks. The following will be accepted as quality assessment measures: circuit lengths, cross-sections of wires installed on lines, voltages measured at the ends of low voltage circuits, lengths of medium voltage network segments, degree of utilization of permissible capacity (calculated as the ratio of the maximum recorded power transmitted by a given line to the long-term permissible power of that line), quantities characterizing the development of smart grids (remote reading meters, remote-controlled switches and stations), damage rate per 100 km of line, average outage time due to failures, average outage time due to planned works, and indicators of outages per consumer.

In the second part of the report, the results obtained by your company will be presented against the backdrop of average, maximum, and minimum values of indicators from other operators.

The report will utilize information from the last three years.

Contact:

Grzegorz Parciński
tel. 22-444-20-82
mail: grzegorz.parcinski@are.waw.pl 

OPRACOWANIE ROCZNE

Analiza rentowności grup taryfowych dotycząca obrotu i dystrybucji energii elektrycznej zostanie przeprowadzona dla umów kompleksowych oraz umów rozdzielonych. W opracowaniu zostanie podana również struktura sprzedaży energii elektrycznej według grup taryfowych.

Analizą rentowności w obrocie i dystrybucji zostaną objęte spółki obrotu (PO_SD) oraz OSD wchodzące w skład skonsolidowanych grup energetycznych (PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A., TAURON Polska Energia S.A., ENEA S.A., ENERGA S.A. oraz Stoen Operator Sp. z o. o.). Dodatkowo w pracy przeanalizowane zostaną pozostałe spółki obrotu (PO) zajmujące się handlem energią elektryczną.

W celu uchwycenia ewentualnych zmian, dane dotyczące rentowności grup taryfowych oraz struktury sprzedaży zostaną podane dla lat 2022-2023.

Przedstawimy Państwu również rentowność nowej taryfy antysmogowej, będzie to jednak uwarunkowane jakością danych przekazanych przez przedsiębiorstwa.

Opracowanie dostarczy dodatkowych informacji do oceny uzyskanych wyników na sprzedaży energii elektrycznej oraz usług dystrybucyjnych. Wyniki opracowania mogą być również przydatne przy kalkulacji taryf.

Kontakt:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The report will include a statistical analysis of losses and balance differences in OSD networks over the past three years and will consist of two parts. 

The first part will carry out an analysis of energy flows in the KSE, in OSD networks, as well as a statistical analysis of electricity losses in distribution networks with voltages of 110 kV, SN (60-15 kV), and low voltage. The analysis of correlation indicators will allow for determining the actual impact of individual network parameters on the magnitude of losses. 

In the second part of the report, the loss indicators of your company will be presented against the average, maximum, and minimum indicators of other OSDs.

Contact:

Grzegorz Parciński
tel. 22-444-20-82
mail: grzegorz.parcinski@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

Wind energy is currently the dominant technology for renewable electricity production in Poland. Considering the number of factors influencing the efficiency of a wind farm, the selection of optimal wind turbines or suitable locations presents a significant challenge for investors.

In response to market demand, the Energy Market Agency S.A. has prepared a comprehensive analysis offering regarding the operation of wind farms in Poland. Based on the compiled information, it will be possible to conduct preliminary investment analyses for new wind farm projects and compare the efficiency of existing facilities with wind farms operating under similar conditions.

To capture potential changes, technical and economic data will be presented for the years 2022-2023.

The detailed scope of the analysis includes:

1. Comparison of monthly efficiency of wind farms in different regions of Poland.

   To ensure comparability of the operational parameters of wind farms, their efficiency will be analyzed considering the specific conditions related to their location. Aggregations will be based on the windiness map of Poland developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, respecting the provisions of the Public Statistics Act.
   
   Additionally, there is an opportunity to compare the efficiency of wind farms owned by a specific company with other units operating under similar conditions.

2. Analysis of costs and profitability of electricity generation in wind power plants.

3. Aggregated data on the financial results of the wind farm sector, also broken down by windiness zones.

Contact:

Jakub Jaworski
tel. 22-444-20-64
mail: jakub.jaworski@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The aim of the report is to present the most current data regarding the development of renewable energy sources for electricity generation in Poland. Changing legal regulations and market conditions significantly influence production volumes in the RES sector and the profitability of investments in the renewable energy segment. 

The proposed report will include:

• Analysis of the development of the RES market divided by individual technologies of electricity generation.
• Current data on installed capacity in the sector and data on electricity production from renewable energy sources.
• Information on the renewable energy market in Poland from 2020 to 2023.
• A register of current and planned investments in the renewable energy sector until 2028.
• Analysis of the renewable energy market in the European Union.
• Development prospects for individual electricity generation technologies based on the “Polish Energy Policy until 2040.” 

The report will also address the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on the energy sector.

The current analysis of the RES market presented in the report, considering its dynamic development, will be a useful tool for management staff in making appropriate managerial decisions to strengthen their position or plans to enter this promising sector for new entities. 

The report will cover the following issues:

1. Analysis of data regarding production capacities in renewable energy from 
   2020 – 2023.
2. Current analysis of the situation in individual RES segments (wind energy, photovoltaics, biomass and biogas installations) in terms of the following volumes and indicators:
   • Changes in capacity from 2020 to 2023.
   • Electricity production for individual technologies from 2020 to 2023.
   • Changes in capacity in 2023 – completed and currently ongoing investments.
3. Information on the renewable energy market in Poland in 2023.
   • Conditions affecting the current situation in the renewable energy market.
   • Operation of the renewable energy market – overview of the overall situation.
   • Competition in the Polish renewable energy market (largest entities, acquisitions, etc.)
4. Development prospects for the renewable energy sector in Poland until 2028.
   • Analysis of conducted and planned RES auctions.
   • Forecasted changes in installed capacities until 2028 for individual technologies based on state energy policy.
   • Investments currently underway and planned until 2028 (type of investments and incurred and planned expenditures) for individual technologies.
5. Renewable energy in the EU.
   • Structure of capacity and its changes from 2020 to 2023 broken down by generation technologies.
   • Prospects and directions for the development of renewable energy, in line with EU policy until 2028.
   • Ongoing and planned investments in the coming years, broken down by individual technologies.
6. Conclusions

Contact:

Mariusz Sowa
tel. 22-444-20-65
mail: mariusz.sowa@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The current rate of growth for new prosumer installations in Poland is extremely dynamic, mainly due to dedicated government support programs (“My Electricity,” “Prosumer,” “Clean Air”), tax incentives for this purpose, and declining technology prices. 

The energy transformation process, which is progressing as a result of energy policy implemented at the European level, will also significantly impact the rate of growth of new prosumer installations in the coming years.

The proposed report aims to present the current situation in the microgeneration market and new solutions resulting from the amendment to the RES Act, which changes the existing prosumer system.

The report will present:

• legal regulations regarding prosumer energy,
• support programs,
• data on installed capacity, number, and electricity production in prosumer installations during 2022-2023, broken down by types of installations (photovoltaics, biogas plants, wind power plants, small hydropower plants),
• a comparison of data on production in prosumer installations in Poland with production in selected EU countries,
• a forecast of installed capacity,
• the number and production of electricity in prosumer installations, broken down by types of installations (photovoltaics, biogas plants, wind power plants, small hydropower plants), with a perspective up to 2040.

Contact:

Joanna Matysiak
tel. 22-444-20-80
mail: joanna.matysiak@are.waw.pl

The primary objective of the report is to identify changes occurring in the country's energy policy and their impact on the functioning of the energy market. Political decisions made to ensure energy security, as well as to maintain independence through the use of domestic energy resources, significantly affect production levels and the profitability of investment processes in various technologies. The authors will present the government's current intentions regarding the electricity sector and compare our policy with the energy policy vision created by the European Union.

Special attention will be paid to identifying differences in the approach to conventional energy and renewable energy sources. The report will also address the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on the energy sector.

The report will cover:

• An analysis of government actions regarding the energy sector,
• Sector plans regarding acquisitions and investments,
• Polish energy in the face of reorganization (the share of coal, oil, and gas in shaping the energy mix, priorities, and schedules),
• Modern energy according to European standards and the development directions promoted by the Polish government,
• Investments in innovative technologies in energy.
• An attempt to answer the question of whether the Polish energy sector is credible for investors and guarantees a "fair" return.

Considering the pace of changes observed recently in the energy market and the energy raw materials market, it becomes essential to have current information about the introduced changes and the energy policy being conducted, which will define the target model of the energy market and the forecasted energy mix for the coming years. Conclusions drawn from the analysis will help determine the directions in which Polish energy will head in the coming years.

Contact:

Mariusz Sowa
tel. 22-444-20-65
mail: mariusz.sowa@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The aim of the report is to present an assessment of the competitiveness of Polish enterprises (primarily consolidated energy groups) with European corporations in the integrating European electricity market. The report outlines the operational and financial situation of the largest European energy corporations (as well as Polish consolidated energy groups).

The comparison of Polish and foreign energy companies has been developed in terms of:

• total sales volume and its structure,
• power generation capacity and electricity production volume,
• operating profit,
• profitability, return on equity,
• electricity sales per employee,
• debt levels.

The report also discusses the European and Polish electricity markets, particularly the phenomena affecting the functioning of enterprises (concentration, market liberalization, prices). The impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine on the energy sector will also be addressed.

The indicative scope of the report is presented below.

1. The European electricity market
   • The area of the European electricity market,
   • Electricity generation in EU countries,
   • Trading of CO2 emission allowances on the European market,
   • EU targets for 2030 and further plans of the European Commission,
   • Electricity prices in EU countries,
   • Electricity trading on the European market.
2. European energy corporations
   • ČEZ, Vattenfall, RWE, ENGIE, EDF, E.ON AG, Iberdrola, Enel.
3. The Polish electricity market
   • Electricity generation and structure,
   • Network and production infrastructure,
   • Wholesale and retail electricity sales,
   • Wholesale and retail electricity prices,
   • International trade,
   • Planned investments in cross-border connections.
4. The largest companies operating in the Polish electricity market
   • PGE, TAURON, ENERGA, ENEA.
5. Comparison of Polish enterprises and European energy corporations
   • Size of enterprises,
   • Structure of European corporations' activities,
   • Efficiency of Polish and European energy corporations,
   • Debt levels of European energy corporations.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

The report, in the form of tabular summaries, will contain information for the year 2023 on individual tariff groups, separately for comprehensive contracts and for sales contracts. 

The data will be presented separately for the group of "incumbent" trading enterprises (PO_SD) and others (PO), as well as combined for both groups. The study will exclude the contracting company (presented separately) so that the presentation pertains only to competitors and allows for the acquisition of the greatest possible knowledge about the parameters of their operations. 

The report will include the following types of data: 

• Number of recipients (in terms of the number of connections);
• Active energy quantity - GWh;
• Active energy value – thousands PLN;
• Other trading fees – thousands PLN:
• Discounts (in trading) – thousands PLN;
• Total revenue from electricity sales– thousands PLN.
• Average total price (electricity and distribution service) – PLN/MWh;
• Average selling price of electricity - PLN/MWh;
• Average selling price of electricity (excluding excise tax) - PLN/MWh;

With limitations regarding the types of contracts (comprehensive contracts and separated contracts).

The summaries for the groups will concern four values: average, median, minimum, and maximum or two values: sum and average (depending on the nature of the variable and the size of the group).

The report will be prepared with the mandatory requirement to maintain statistical confidentiality. 

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The purpose of this study is to estimate future electricity prices sold by producers in the wholesale market and the costs of consumed coal in the short term (2024 and 2025). The forecast will be based on the results of a group of centrally dispatched generating units fueled by coal (JWCD). The decision to select this representative group of producers was made for two reasons:

• they constitute a high share in the production of professional, conventional producers.
• electricity prices and coal costs for these units are published annually by the President of URE and are used to calculate the annual cost correction to cover the costs of consumed natural gas and the costs of unconsumed natural gas. 

To implement the short-term forecast, simplified short-term forecasting models were used. Historical data for generating units using hard or brown coal that are part of the JWCD group were used as input to the models. Forecasted electricity consumption in the country and information about the situation on the fuel market were utilized. Based on the assumptions made and the information published annually by the President of URE, the following will be forecasted:

• the average price of electricity generated by producers operating centrally dispatched coal-fired units,
• the weighted average cost of coal (including transportation costs) used by centrally dispatched coal-fired generating units.

The algorithm used by the President of URE to determine the relevant variables will be adopted for calculations. A preliminary analysis of historical data showed a high consistency of calculations performed based on the ARE S.A. database for JWCD with the information published by the President of URE. 

The estimation of weighted average electricity prices and weighted average coal costs will be based on: 

• historical and current data, including unit fuel costs, unit generation costs, and unit CO2 costs,
• observed trends (including: production ratios of WK/WB, directions of electricity sales, prices of electricity and coal),
• information about planned block outages,
• medium-term forecasts of hard coal prices considering the situation in the Polish market,
• prices of CO2 emission allowances (taking into account the decreasing share of free CO2 emission allowances granted to Polish professional energy),
• current information published on TGE about contracts on SPOT and futures markets (including futures contracts for electricity, with physical delivery in 2022 and 2023),
• quotations on the largest neighboring electricity futures market (EEX in Frankfurt) and for hard coal in ARA (Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Antwerp).

The forecasted path of coal costs will be made separately for hard and brown coal. Brown coal is a local energy source, therefore the price projection for this fuel will be determined under Polish conditions based on current levels of these prices (ARE S.A. database). Subsequently, taking into account the trend in production and fuel costs, the weighted average cost of coal used by JWCD will be calculated (including both WB and WK with transportation costs).

As part of the forecast, it is proposed to implement three scenarios, differentiated by the level of electricity demand, namely:

1. Scenario I - baseline, based on the latest forecasts made by ARE S.A. in 2023 and 2024,
2. Scenario II - high, assuming an increase in coal fuel prices,
3. Scenario III - low, assuming a decrease in coal fuel prices.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
email: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

This report is directed at trading companies actively participating in the retail electricity market. In the face of increasing competition, the development of new, innovative energy products is essential for maintaining the attractiveness of the offer.

The aim of the report is to present the situation in the retail markets in Poland and selected EU countries from the perspective of a trading company developing its product offerings for mass customers or participating in tenders for electricity supplies for large commercial customers or public institutions.

By comparing the Polish and European retail markets in terms of product offerings and the number of customers using the TPA principle, it will be possible to adopt new energy products in the Polish market, such as linking electricity supply with the provision of other utilities (television, Internet, phone, or natural gas).

The report will cover the following topics:

• Comparison of tariff plans of energy companies operating in Poland and selected EU countries.
• Overview of offerings aimed at mass customers (fixed price offers, dual fuel, loyalty programs, green energy, sales through external operators, equipping customers with smart meters) and large industrial customers (indexed offers).
• The electricity supply tender market in Poland.
• Electricity prices in tenders organized under the Public Procurement Law in Poland. Information about winning entities, volumes, and prices.
• Settlements in electricity trading in Poland.
• Structure of electricity consumers buying electricity in time zones, according to individual voltage levels. Electricity prices at different voltage levels and in time zones.
• Characteristics of the retail electricity market in Poland and selected EU countries.
• Market shares of dominant trading companies, the number of customers using electricity supply from alternative sellers, and the size of the retail electricity markets.

The information contained in the report provides an opportunity to gain a competitive advantage by understanding the range of energy products offered by competitors in the home market, as well as presenting new solutions from European markets that have not yet been applied by companies in the Polish market.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

Activities related to the wholesale and retail sale of natural gas constitute an essential segment of the operations of energy companies in the European Union. The ongoing liberalization of the natural gas market in the country presents new challenges for domestic energy groups, as well as creating new opportunities. This report is aimed at entities that have so far operated solely in the electricity sector and serves as a practical introduction to the issues of wholesale and retail sales of blue fuel, presenting the most up-to-date information from key natural gas markets in the European Union. 

An additional factor determining the attractiveness of this report is the progressing integration of the energy and gas industries, resulting from the development of gas-based production sources. Considering the investment plans of domestic energy companies, it can be stated that the energy sector has a chance to become a key consumer of blue fuel in the country. In light of the current situation, expanding knowledge about the potential fuel base for new production sources seems inevitable.

The report contains a synthetic description of the most significant segments of the natural gas market in the European Union, including:

• Prices and volumes of natural gas at the largest exchanges and hubs in the European Union (ICE – United Kingdom; EEX – Germany; APX/ENDEX – Belgium, Powernext – France, NORDPOOL – Scandinavia, GME – Italy, Zeebrugge – Belgium).
• Characteristics of entities operating in the wholesale natural gas market in the European Union (the structure of activities carried out by multi-energy companies, revenues, sales volume, key economic indicators for operations).
• Prices of natural gas for commercial customers and households in selected countries of the European Union.
• Characteristics of retail natural gas markets in selected countries of the European Union (the structural entities of retail natural gas markets, the number of customers, the volume of cold gas sales by key entities in the European market).
• Gas energy in the European Union (installed capacity in gas-fired sources in selected markets of the European Union, the share of natural gas in electricity production structure, the structural entities of gas sources, applied technologies – annual data).

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

This report contains data summarizing the annual activities of the electricity sector and has been prepared by ARE S.A. for many years. The scope of the presented information is based on the income statement, balance sheet data, and data on energy activities. A very broad spectrum of technical and economic-financial indicators is provided, serving as an essential tool for assessing the economic and financial situation of companies. For many indicators, standards have been established, deviations from which indicate the occurrence of irregularities. 

The information contained pertains to synthetic results of the professional electricity sector divided into subsectors, as well as detailed information about groups of companies in the generation and wholesale trading subsectors (PO). In the chapter regarding generating companies, the aggregated groups are: professional coal-fired power plants, professional hard coal-fired power plants, all power plants, professional hard coal-fired cogeneration plants, gas-fired professional cogeneration plants, including those fueled exclusively by gas, professional biomass-fired power plants and cogeneration plants, total professional cogeneration plants, total professional power plants and cogeneration plants, total independent cogeneration plants, and total subsector. Selected information on energy activities is also presented for the group of professional hydropower plants, photovoltaic plants (>10MW), and wind farms (>10 MW).

In the chapters concerning the OSD, PO_SD, and PO subsectors, in addition to the total amounts and for groups, information regarding prices and indicators has been supplemented with minimum and maximum values in the subsectors. 

The report is supplemented by a chapter presenting rankings of energy groups and selected large companies (non-identifiable data) according to selected indicators for various types of activities (generation, distribution, and retail).

The report also includes the results of Polish energy groups (GK PGE S.A., GK TAURON PE S.A., GK ENERGA S.A., GK ENEA S.A.) from the last two years.

Contact:

Janusz Smardz
tel. 22-444-20-60
mail: janusz.smardz@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The scope of the report will cover the following issues: 

1. Development of the electricity sector in the context of the economy in 2021-2023.
   • electricity consumption, electro-intensiveness,
   • electricity production, sales, foreign exchange, and investments in the electricity sector,
   • financial results (dynamics of revenues and net profit) in electricity sector companies and the economy,
   • economic-financial indicators in electricity sector companies and other branches of the economy,
   • projected GDP growth and electricity production in 2024-2025.
2. Dynamics of development of listed companies in the electricity sector (collectively) against the background of the electricity sector in 2021-2023 (comparative analysis).
   • production and sales of electricity and heat,
   • investments,
   • electricity prices,
   • financial results (dynamics of revenues, net profit, profit from electricity sales),
   • economic-financial indicators.
3. Dynamics of development and financial situation of individual listed companies in the electricity sector (PGE, TAURON, ENEA, ENERGA, Kogeneracja, Ec Będzin) in the years 
   2021-2023.
   • production and sales of electricity and heat,
   • investments,
   • electricity prices,
   • financial results (dynamics of revenues, net profit, results from electricity sales),
   • economic-financial indicators.
4. Comparison of the financial situation of listed companies in the electricity sector with the financial situation of companies included in the WIG 20 index.
   • dynamics of revenues, net profit,
   • level of economic-financial indicators.
5. Changes in the stock prices of energy companies against stock exchange changes in 2021-2023 and in 2023.
   • comparison of changes in the WIG 20 and WIG-ENERG indices,
   • changes in the stock prices of individual companies included in WIG-ENERG (PGE, TAURON, ENEA, ENERGA, EC Będzin, Kogeneracja),
   • return on investment of companies included in the WIG20 and WIG-ENERG indices,
   • price/earnings ratio and price/book value ratio of companies included in the WIG 20 and WIG-ENERG indices.

Contact:

Mariusz Sowa
tel. 22-444-20-65
mail: mariusz.sowa@are.waw.pl 

ANNUAL REPORT

The report will conduct a statistical analysis of the share of electricity sales volumes in various directions within the total electricity sales of power plants and cogeneration plants, as well as an assessment of the significance of each sales direction in the energy market. Changes that have occurred in recent years in the sales portfolios of electricity generation groups will be analyzed.

A statistical analysis of changes in electricity sales prices sold in various sales directions for the specified groups of producers will also be conducted.

The analysis will be performed for groups of power plants and cogeneration plants formed based on criteria from the system market and local markets, as well as for the entire country. The report will cover the years 2019 - 2023.

Contact:

Wojciech Biczyński
tel. 22-444-20-81
mail: wojciech.biczynski@are.waw.pl