Agencja Rynku Energii S.A.

The offer of the Energy Market Agency S.A. includes forecasts for the development of the energy sector in all areas of its operation. The ARE team has many years of experience in the broadly understood energy modeling - forecasts have been prepared by us since the Agency's inception. 

The most prestigious areas of forecasts include:

• Forecasts of demand for fuels and energy, conducted in a sectoral system, divided by all currently used and prospective fuels and energy carriers,
• Forecasts of the optimal structure of capacity and production of electricity and district heating (energy mix),
• Forecasts of costs of energy technologies,
• Forecasts of fuel and energy carrier prices in the wholesale and retail markets,
• Forecasts of certificate prices,
• Forecasts of pollutant emissions across the economy,
• Forecasts for the development of solid, liquid, and gas fuel markets as well as renewable energy sources (RES).

Forecasts of demand for fuels and energy and ways to meet it are developed according to the methodology commonly used in global energy research. The forecasting models based on this methodology were developed, among others, at the Argonne National Laboratory (USA) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria). In recent years, a final consumption (“end-use”) model STEAM-PL has also been created at ARE for the needs of forecasting work, specifically reflecting the technical aspects related to energy use in various sectors of the economy (including the development of distributed energy sources). This model is based on the “bottom-up” approach recommended by the European Commission in such analyses. The projections generated using this model (divided by sectors of the national economy and direction of use*) are built on coherent scenarios that include macroeconomic and demographic assumptions, expected rates of improvement in energy efficiency, and technological progress. The demand projections developed by ARE S.A. usually serve as a reference point for pathways prepared by other centers. The detailed approach applied in the STEAM_PL model enables analysis of processes related to technological progress, improvement of energy efficiency, and development of new technologies and solutions (development of distributed RES, hydrogen economy, circular economy, gasification of coal, biomass, and battery-based storage technologies).

To optimize the structure of capacity and the production of electricity and district heating, the MESSAGE model (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts) is used. The operating principle of this model is based on minimizing the total discounted system costs over the entire considered time period, utilizing linear programming methods. The MESSAGE model operates on a user-defined energy flow network, starting from the extraction or delivery of primary energy, through transformations (e.g., electricity and heat generation), transmission, and distribution, up to consumers in industry, agriculture, transportation, services, and households. This model has been adapted to Polish conditions.

For forecasting electricity prices in the wholesale market, the ORCED model has been adapted to Polish conditions, which simulates the productivity of individual units for a given structure and year, along with determining the selling price in the competitive energy market. The results of this model are verified in the ARENA proprietary model, where market game simulation is analyzed in a much more detailed manner, i.e., using hourly time resolution, generation units are divided into blocks, inter-system exchange conditions are considered in detail (the model forecasts electricity prices in neighboring markets and compares them in hourly arrangements), and the influence of the capacity market, support systems for RES and cogeneration, DSR services, and the development of new technologies such as battery energy storage, DSR services, or PtX solutions is also taken into account.

Our forecasts reflect both the current and projected directions of energy policy in Poland and the European Union. The assumptions and conditions for implementing forecasting work include legal regulations governing the activities of energy companies and the conditions for the functioning of the fuel and energy market, which affect the level of demand and ways to meet it. This includes all regulations that may impact trends in the development of the energy sector.

When developing short-, medium-, and long-term projections, various factors are considered, including:

• The projected level of economic development of the country as the primary driving force behind changes in demand for fuels and energy,
• Micro and macroeconomic environment,
• Forecasts of availability and prices of primary fuels,
• Environmental requirements:
  • Emission reduction;
  • Potential and dynamics of RES use;
• Possibilities for improving energy efficiency,
• Import and export of fuels and energy carriers,
• Possible available energy technologies (technical and cost parameters). 

Thanks to the continuously improved forecasting methodology that allows the implementation of many different factors determining the development of the sector, and thus enabling a proper assessment of the impacts and actions planned in energy policy and sectoral policy at the national level, original projections have been developed in recent years in the area of:

• Development of generating capacity in energy and heating,
• Costs of energy technologies (investment expenditures, operating costs, environmental costs),
• Comparative costs of electricity generation in different technologies (LCOE),
• Certificate prices (PMOZE_A, PMOZE_Bio, PMBG),
• Investment expenditures for modernization and expansion of fuel and energy systems,
• Prices of fuels and energy carriers (electricity, district heating, natural gas, hard coal, lignite, biomass, heating oil, diesel oil, gasoline, LPG) in the wholesale and retail markets,
• Demand for fuels and energy (divided by sectors of the national economy, energy carriers, and regions),
• Production of electricity and district heating (divided by technologies and fuels),
• Emissions of pollutants (CO2, NOX, SO2, and particulates) in the ETS and non-ETS sectors,
• The impact of the development of the fuel and energy sector on the economy and employment.

The projections we develop can be based on expert assumptions prepared by the experienced analytical team of ARE S.A., as well as on the client's wishes.

Due to the fact that there is a great interest in the aforementioned forecasts of energy demand, projections regarding certificates of origin, forecasts of wholesale electricity prices, and projections regarding energy technology costs, a brief description of them is provided below.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

Projections of wholesale electricity prices are one of the most prestigious areas of activity for the Energy Market Agency S.A. and at the same time the most sought-after type of analysis in the market. ARE possesses extensive knowledge and experience in this area and has developed analytical and forecasting tools. Some of these tools were developed by recognized foreign research institutions, while others are the original work of a team of experts who are well acquainted with the specifics of the Polish electricity market. These models allow for the consideration of a number of factors shaping prices in the wholesale market, such as: the level of demand for electricity, operating costs of generation units, fuel costs, environmental costs, the optimal shape of the energy mix, development of RES (including distributed generation), level of inter-system exchange, schedule of permanent outages, and plans for new unit construction, as well as the mode and nature of operation of individual generation sources, network constraints, and many others. Currently, our models distinguish all thermal blocks along with their technical and economic characteristics. The models used are based on hourly time resolution, allowing for projections in the short, medium, and long term. The application of such a solution also enables a detailed analysis of the operation of non-dispatchable energy sources, as well as new technological solutions such as: battery energy storage, electrolyzers, and DSR services. Projections of electricity prices are made in terms of prices in bands (base, peak, and off-peak) as well as in hourly arrangements. The forecasting horizon is adjusted to meet the needs of our Clients (we perform forecasts in the short, medium, and long term).

The offered forecasts are based on the most current macroeconomic, demographic, technical, and market data (in relation to GDP projections, the prices of specific instruments on domestic and foreign markets, primary fuel prices, CO2 emission allowance prices, operating costs of generation units, etc.). They take into account the impact of the operation of individual support systems, including: the capacity market, support for electricity generation from RES and in cogeneration, and improvements in energy efficiency.

The knowledge provided gives our Clients a number of competitive advantages, as well as a broad basis for making appropriate business decisions, particularly important at the threshold of a great energy transformation. 

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

The Energy Market Agency S.A. also offers projections of prices for certificates of origin for electricity produced from renewable energy sources (PMOZE_A), known as green certificates, traded on the Polish Power Exchange (TGE). These projections will be preceded by a detailed market analysis, with particular emphasis on the legal status and the balance of certificates in the system. Based on the balance of renewable energy source certificates in the system, a projection of the surplus level of certificates will be prepared, taking into account:

• the projected level of electricity demand and sales to end users,
• the required share of renewable energy sources in individual forecast years,
• the level of obligation reduction for industrial consumers,
• the level of production from individual renewable energy sources, assuming that large hydropower plants were excluded from the system as of July 1, 2016, and that support for generation units using biomass co-fired with coal has been limited (0.5 certificate for the production of 1 MWh),
• the gradual exit from the system of units due to migration to the auction system,
• the gradual exit from the system of units due to exceeding the 15-year support period.

Projections of "green certificate" prices, according to the methodology applied in ARE, also take into account the expected level of electricity prices in the competitive market, as the sale of electricity is one of the sources of revenue for owners of renewable energy installations operating within this system, as well as changes in electricity demand. These forecasts are based on the most current macroeconomic, legal, and market data. 

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

The Energy Market Agency S.A. has been specializing in the development of forecasts for fuel and energy demand in the short, medium, and long term for many years. To achieve this, it employs a methodology widely used around the world, in which economic growth is regarded as the main driving force behind the increase in energy demand, described using macroeconomic variables, demographic changes, behavioral and technological factors, and the pace of improvement in energy efficiency. The forecasts also take into account the country's energy policy and global trends (e.g., the development of distributed energy, decarbonization of the economy, the development of electromobility, new fuels, and technological solutions). The methodology and models used in the forecasting process have been developed by internationally recognized research institutions, and their applicability for this purpose has been confirmed by numerous analytical studies commissioned by government institutions, energy companies, and international projects (e.g., in the preparation of the National Energy and Climate Plan for 2021-2030).

These forecasts are produced for all types of fuels and energy carriers, as well as for sectors of the national economy. Currently, the models enable the generation of forecasts for fuel and energy consumption broken down by usage directions, such as electrical appliances, lighting, domestic hot water preparation, cooking, space heating, and air conditioning in households. Such analyses allow for the assessment of future changes in fuel and energy utilization across all sectors: electricity, heating, solid, liquid, and gas fuels, etc.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

Distributed energy, or generating energy close to the point of consumption, implies the need to change the existing model of the energy system. An energy consumer who actively participates in the process of generating electricity consumes electricity for their own needs and feeds any surplus into the grid. This process significantly impacts the functioning of the electricity system, particularly affecting the amount of electricity drawn from the grid. The growing number of distributed energy sources will change the way the grid is managed and operated. It will primarily compel Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Distribution System Operators (DSOs) to undertake a series of investment actions aimed at adapting the infrastructure to ensure the ability to supply electricity to customers under specified conditions, at specific locations, and times. The largest increase in capacity among distributed sources is expected to occur in PV sources. Their operation is relatively well correlated with the increasing summer peak load in Poland, which results from the growing use of air conditioning. However, after surpassing certain levels of PV capacity in the system, problems may arise with balancing in the afternoon due to rising demand in the National Power System (KSE) and decreasing PV generation. Additionally, in cases of high PV generation and low demand, local issues may arise in the distribution network, such as voltage levels exceeding permissible values in low and medium voltage networks. Therefore, appropriate planning of the system's operation, including generation from controllable and flexible sources, is crucial.

The Energy Market Agency S.A. offers to produce short-, medium-, and long-term forecasts of electricity production in prosumer installations, as well as forecasts of energy consumption by prosumers for their own needs. These projections will be carried out using quantitative methods that allow for the description of the complex characteristics of the phenomenon being studied, as well as precise consideration of many factors affecting the modeled and forecasted quantities. Projections will be conducted in close cooperation with the Client. Information about electricity consumption in an agreed form and structure of measurement data regarding generation and consumption of energy in specific consumer groups will serve as input for the model used in the projection.

The offered analysis will take the form of a report containing the following elements:

• Methodology and description of the models used in the forecast,
• Set of assumptions,
• Forecast of electricity demand in the area of the distribution company's operations, at a time resolution agreed upon with the Client, taking into account the amount of energy consumed for their own needs by prosumers,
• Forecast of electricity production in prosumer installations by 2030: (broken down by type of RES micro-installations, installed capacity [MW], amount of electricity produced fed into the distribution grid [MWh]).

The aforementioned projections will be prepared for a scenario based on the most current assumptions regarding macroeconomic forecasts (GDP considering the impact of COVID-19, inflation, exchange rates EUR/PLN, USD/PLN), demographic forecasts, projections of average outdoor temperatures, and the number of heating and cooling degree days, as well as the anticipated pace of development of prosumer energy.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl

The aim of the analysis is to assess the most advantageous technological options for electricity generation from the perspective of the total costs incurred by society.

The study will include the latest estimates regarding the costs of electricity generation for a wide range of technologies that are being considered for deployment 
in the foreseeable future. Only those technologies that are currently at an advanced stage of development, enabling their commercial application, as well as those for which such a level is expected to be achieved in the next several years, will be taken into account.

The offered analysis will take the form of a report containing the following elements:

1. Description of the methodology used in the work.

2. Set of assumptions for the analysis regarding:

   • considered technologies for electricity generation and their potential commercial availability up to the year 2050, 

   • unit investment and operational costs for individual technologies,

   • fuel prices,

   • costs of CO2 emission allowances,

   • technical parameters of the considered technologies,

   • construction time of generating units representing a given technology,

   • discount rate and cost of capital.

3. Calculations of unit costs of generation discounted to the year of commissioning based on the assumptions made in the considered variant 

4. Sensitivity analysis of the results of the analysis to changes in key parameters based 
   on the principle of ceteris paribus (investment outlays, discount rate, capacity factor CF, fuel cost, cost of purchasing CO2 emission allowances)

5. Summary and conclusions.

Contact:

Sławomir Skwierz
tel. 22-444-20-18
mail: slawomir.skwierz@are.waw.pl